Fact checking the ACMi
School Committee debate: Lynette Martyn, beginning
at 34:30 “I’ve noticed that no school
committee candidates have been specifically addressing
the state’s data on the extreme disparity gaps
for our high needs students, including 15% of our kids
on IEPs, the 30% of our kids that identify as students
of color, our economically disadvantaged students, and
our English language learners. This amounts to thousands
of children with disparities in MCAS scores,
graduation rates. These students deserve better from our
school system and I’d like to understand why no one is
talking about the data specifically.” Lynette Martyn, beginning
at 40:20 “Our students of color make up
30 percent of the student population but 50 to 60
percent of our suspensions. Our Asian kids might be
doing better on our MCAS scores but they are being
disciplined at five times the rate of our white kids.” “Arlington prides itself on a
96 percent graduation rate but they are significantly
lower and as low as 79 percent for our economically
disadvantaged kids. We don’t know how to talk about
these uncomfortable truths. If we aren’t willing to lean
into these difficult conversations, then we’re not going
to be able to tackle the systemic issues…” Lynette Martyn, beginning
at 44:24 “If you’re a white kid who
comes from an economically stable family, and is a
native English speaker, and learns the same way as
everyone else, Arlington Public Schools is great. We’re
meeting the needs there, and we’re on a (inaudible at
45:22) kids that are being underserved are overlooked
and we really need to focus on them. And these
statistics are, the statistics come from the state. They
are the state keeping us accountable, and so I think
they are important data to look at. I think we should be
more transparent about it with the community.” Paul Schlichtman, beginning
at 35:00 It’s a complicated picture and
we cannot pigeon-hole it as certain kids are doing well
and certain kids aren’t in terms of looking at big
groups. To make things work, we need to do really great
teaching one-on-one, classroom level, understanding the
unique needs of each and every kid. Looking for things
that are systemic, but also going down to the classroom
level, building the relationship with each and every
child to make sure we are meeting individual needs,
through a tiered approach that will demonstrate that
good teaching matters; and that’s what we’re looking to
do. A lesson in significance: Amy Gallo quotes author Tom
Redman in her article, “A
Refresher on Statistical Significance,” in
the Harvard Business Review (February 16, 2016): “Statistical
significance helps quantify whether a result is likely
due to chance or to some factor of interest,” says
Redman. When a finding is significant, it simply means
you can feel confident that’s it real, not that you just
got lucky (or unlucky) in choosing the sample. https://hbr.org/2016/02/a-refresher-on-statistical-significance
Making sense of coin
flips We have data from a series
of coin flips using two different coins, a quarter and a
dollar coin. The quarter comes up heads 52% of the time,
the dollar coin comes up heads 60% of the time. Which of the following
conclusions can be derived from the data?
|
Coin |
Flips |
Heads |
Tails |
Percent Heads |
Quarter |
100 |
52 |
48 |
52% |
Dollar |
5 |
3 |
2 |
60% |
This brings us back to
Lynette Martyn’s claim there are “thousands of
children with disparities in MCAS scores,
graduation rates. These students deserve better from our
school system.” Let’s look at the data, as
reported on the state website www.doe.mass.edu. Are there extreme disparities in graduation rates? Here is a screenshot
of the data reported on the state website. http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/grad/grad_report.aspx?orgcode=00100000&orgtypecode=5& The state calculates two
sets of graduation rate data. There is the Cohort
Graduation Rate, which describes the outcome for all the
students in the graduating class. There is also the
Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate, which describes the
outcome for the students who were in the cohort since
the beginning of ninth grade. In this case, the Adjusted
Cohort Graduation Rate includes only students who were
reported as enrolled in the Arlington Public Schools on
October 1, 2015. The analysis requires us to
look at the raw numbers instead of the percentages
displayed on the DESE data file. To aid in the analysis,
the students in the Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate
table were subtracted from the students in the Cohort
Graduation Rate to provide data for students who entered
the Arlington Public Schools after October 1, 2015. DESE does not report
graduation rates for cohorts less than 6 Despite Lynette Martyn’s
claim to the contrary, there is no evidence of extreme
disparities in graduation rates for White, Black, or
Asian students in the Arlington Public Schools. Looking at the Four Year
Cohort Graduation Rate, the differences between White
(96.1%), Black (92.3%), and Asian (100.0%) graduation
rates is not significant. There were 13 Black students
in the cohort, so the percentage graduating (12/13 or
92.3%) cannot be seen as evidence of extreme disparities
between racial groups. Looking further, the Four
Year Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate yields another set
of numbers where the differences between White (97.4%),
Black (100.0%), and Asian (100.0%) fails a test of
significance. Why is there a difference in the
graduation rate for Black students? One Black student,
who entered Arlington schools after the beginning of
ninth grade, was still enrolled in school on October 1,
2019. If we are to look for any
findings from the data, the statewide trends may provide
some insight. Students with disabilities, English
Learners, and students who transfer in after ninth grade
are more likely to take additional time to graduate. The
reason is self-evident. Students may be transferring
into our schools lacking sufficient credits to be on
track for a four-year graduation, English Learners need
to develop English proficiency in addition to meeting
standard academic requirements, and Students with
Disabilities often take more time to meet graduation
requirements. Moving away from the
graduation rate, we should also look at the dropout
rate. Arlington reported 5 dropouts out of 360 students
(1.4%). Two of these students were in the adjusted
cohort of 315 students (0.6%), and three came from the
students who joined the Class of 2019 after the
beginning of ninth grade (6.7%). Again, the very small
number of dropouts (5) makes it impossible to assign
significance to any category of students. This is why
the strategy of focusing on individual students, rather
than try to attribute outcomes to extreme disparities
between groups. Paul Schlichtman, beginning
at 35:00 It’s a complicated picture and we
cannot pigeon-hole it as certain kids are doing well and
certain kids aren’t in terms of looking at big groups.
To make things work, we need to do really great teaching
one-on-one, classroom level, understanding the unique
needs of each and every kid. Looking for things that are
systemic, but also going down to the classroom level,
building the relationship with each and every child to
make sure we are meeting individual needs, through a
tiered approach that will demonstrate that good teaching
matters; and that’s what we’re looking to do. Are Asian kids being
disciplined at five times the rate of white kids? Lynette Martyn, beginning at 40:20 Fact: http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/ssdr/default.aspx?orgcode=00100000&orgtypecode=5&=00100000& The very small number of
students disciplined makes it difficult to assign
significance to any one category, with the exception of
gender. Given that 78 of 93 students disciplined are
male, there is evidence of a disparity that merits a
possible examination of systemic factors leading to a
student being disciplined. The High Needs category
consists of any student that falls into any one of the
three categories of English Learner, Economically
Disadvantaged, or Students with Disabilities. (The same
student will be counted in two or three of these
categories.) The district has a goal of
zero suspensions, and Arlington has added social workers
and psychologists to meet the individual needs of
students with behavioral challenges. Again, the numbers
in Arlington are small, so a focus on individual
students is the best strategy for reducing incidents
requiring disciplinary action. Additionally, the numbers
of students disciplined in Arlington are significantly
smaller than the statewide numbers. The percentage of
all students disciplined in Arlington (1.53%) is about a
third of the statewide rate.
Racism is evil, and it has
been a toxin infused in the American experience from the
first day Europeans landed on this continent. Our
schools are a better place today than in the past
because of the diligence and hard work of our staff and
our community. Along with the rest of the world around
us, we have not reached a race-blind panacea, which is
why we strive for a culture of continuous improvement in
everything we do. This work requires precise, thoughtful
analysis in an environment where it is safe to examine
our reality and talk openly about
the next steps forward. The norms required for this
difficult work are violated when false or misleading
data is forced into the center of our public
discourse. Promoting
blanket outrage over shortchanging “thousands of
students,” when the thousands don’t exist, blinds us to
the important work of fighting racism. It blinds us to
examining and evaluating the interpersonal
relationships that are the foundation of our work. It is
toxic. It is hurtful and defamatory to members of our
school community, and counterproductive to our efforts
to create a better world for all our students. |